Week 8 of the NFL season is upon us, and the overreactions are loud on the streets. We’re nearly halfway through the regular season and have a better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
That said, this is still a small sample size of games. Those that have been played can be dug through and sprinkled with context to become useful. Team-adjusted stats like DVOA have some value, and we also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams in the early going.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Lets start with a David and Goliath pick prediction. Dolphins are coming of a loss, 6th in a row, but this was a hard loss for them to “swallow” as the winner (Atlanta Falcons) has been decided in the last second, with a field goal score. Pretty painful, for a team that had hopes to end a 5 game losing streak.
On the other side, Bills are coming of a bye week and certainly as a 4-2 team are aiming to the post season. We believe they had enough time to consider and correct the mistakes from week 6 where they at Titans despite being a 4.5 points favourite. Bills defense played hot and cold during the season but the offense is playing superbly. A two touchdown favourites against a poor team.
Prediction: Bills -13.5 ; OVER 48.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
This game is as close to a “must win” as possible for the Steelers (3-3) and the Browns (4-3), who have lost ground in the A.F.C. North to the Bengals and the Ravens.
It is unclear whether Baker Mayfield (shoulder) will play, though signs point to the return of running back Nick Chubb (calf), who practiced Monday after a two-game absence. Chubb and the third-string running back, D’Ernest Johnson, won’t be enough to carry the Browns to a win against the Steelers’ seventh-ranked rush defense. Expect Pittsburgh to put up a fight to stay off the division’s floor, a challenge that gets easier if the Cleveland backup Case Keenum is forced to make plays.
Prediction: Steelers +3.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
This is the second battle of this two teams and division rivals, in which Titans lead the divison with a 5-2 score and despite that they are playing in a superb form in the last 3 games. Surprisingly the Colts improved a lot but seeing them as a field goal favourites against the team that trashed the Chiefs and Bills in the last 2 weeks appears as nothing but a bookie trap. Anyways we see this as a bookie gift and there is no reason why not to support the Titans on this one .
Prediction: Titans +3
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Cincinnati is 5-2 and in first place in the AFC North following last week’s blowout win over the Baltimore Ravens. That has led to the Bengals being a double-digit road favourite this week against the New York Jets, but Cincinnati might be getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers but they will keep getting it if they keep winning.
The Bengals are huge favorites against the Jets, who might be forced to turn to backup quarterback Mike White. The Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase continues to flow, and the Bengals continue on one of the leagues’ most-surprising starts. New York is 1-5 ATS this season, so this line could push into the double digits.
Prediction: Bengals -10.5