Just like when these teams faced off in Orchard Park in early December, the weather is looking like it will be the dominant storyline heading into the game.
An arctic chill will descend on Western New York setting the stage for one of the coldest games in the stadium’s history as the Bills host their first full capacity playoff game since 1996.
They will be buoyed by their Week 16 win in New England where Josh Allen was the star of the show, throwing for three touchdowns and accounting for 378 of the Bills 428 total yards on the day.
He will need to be at his best however despite being in his fourth season in the North-East, he still has shown signs of struggling in cold weather.
After going on a seven-game winning streak to briefly take the lead in the AFC East, New England limps into the playoffs with a 1-3 SU and ATS record in its last four. Slow starts have recently been an issue for the Pats, who faced first-half deficits of 13 points or more in each of those three losses. That includes a 20-7 hole when these teams last met on Boxing Day in Foxborough.
When making your Patriots vs Bills prediction, you certainly need to account for a dropoff in production from rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Favored to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award a month ago, Jones struggled down the stretch, throwing six touchdowns and five interceptions in his final five contests.
You can never count out Bill Belichick and his team as an underdog, especially against the Bills. If they can run the ball as effectively as they did in their two earlier meetings with Buffalo this season, the Patriots should be live to earn their 10th victory in their last 11 trips to Orchard Park.
Stopping the run will obviously be a big key for the Bills, who are 3-4 SU this year when allowing 100 or more rushing yards. But a fast start will also be important for Buffalo in order to settle in and keep the fans energized. The Bills are 8-0 SU when scoring a touchdown on their first possession.
Prediction: Patriots +5