NFL season 2021/2022 – Week 1
Thursday football- Season opening
The NFL’s season-opening game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys is on our doorstep, with the two teams set to face off at Raymond James Stadium on Thursday night.
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Besides the fact that the reigning Super Bowl champions are set to take the field, this game serves as the return of Cowboys’ star quarterback Dak Prescott, who signed a bank-breaking extension with Dallas this offseason despite only playing five games in 2020 due to a fractured ankle. As such, this could be one of the most-viewed games on the NFL’s slate this year.
The Buccaneers offence was second in the NFL in points per play last year (0.48). The Cowboys’ defense was 28th, allowing 0.45 points per play. Tampa Bay had the third-ranked offense in the NFL (30.8 points per game) last year, and will be up against Dallas’ 28th-ranked defence from a season ago (29.6 ppg). The Cowboys’ defense racked up 31 sacks last season (13th-fewest in NFL). The Buccaneers gave up 22 sacks to rank fourth in the league. Tampa Bay had the No. 7 offence in the NFL in terms of yards per play last year (six), and will take on last season’s No. 23 defence in that category (Dallas allowed 5.9 per play).
The Cowboys gave up 44 sacks last season to rank 26th in the league. The Buccaneers’ defense racked up 48 (fourth-most). Dallas ranked 27th in the league last season, committing 26 turnovers, while Tampa Bay was fifth with 25 turnovers forced. The Cowboys averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year (19th in league) compared to the 3.6 per rushing attempt the Buccaneers allowed (first). Tampa Bay allowed 80.6 rushing yards per game last year (first in the NFL). Dallas’ rushing game ranked 17th in the league (111.8).
The Cowboys had an incredibly bad defense last year, as the players never managed to fully grasp Mike Nolan’s Tampa 2 Base defense. Out goes Nolan, enters Dan Quinn, the former Atlanta Falcons head coach who did a great job as the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks in their back-to-back Super Bowl appearances last decade. Quinn employs a cover-3 base scheme, who will be mostly relying on Malik Hooker, Jourdan Lewis, and Trevon Diggs to cover the deep field.
An unbelievable stat about the Buccaneers’ offense in 2020 is that Brady threw 33 touchdowns and 6 interceptions when throwing outside the hatches, but 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions between them. This is interesting, considering the quality of Tampa’s tight end group. It is what it is though. If the matchup between the Cowboys’ powered offense and the Buccaneers’ strong defense is fair, the Buccaneers’ offense should have a much easier job when they have the ball. The key to beat Dallas goes through keeping Tom Brady safe in the pocket and exploring the favourable matchups between Tampa’s receivers and Dallas’ defensive backs.
Betting trends and stats.
While the Cowboys were 5-11 against the spread last season, they were 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. Once they learned to weather the injury storm, the Cowboys kept games closer.
- Tampa Bay has won eight straight games.
- The point total has gone UNDER in five straight games played between Dallas and Tampa Bay.
- Tampa Bay has seen the underdog cover the spread in eight of its last nine season opening games.
- The Buccaneers are 7-3 in their past nine games ATS, failing to cover the last time they played an NFC East foe (WFT).
- The Cowboys are 4-4 ATS in their past eight games against the Buccaneers, failing to cover in each of their past four outings.
Prediction
A huge part of deciding who’s going to win goes through how much will the Cowboys pressure Tom Brady during the game. While Dallas’ defense should look much better this year with Dan Quinn calling the shots, it’s still a group that won’t be able to fully stop Brady and the Buccaneers. It’s going to be a game tighter than some people are expecting it to be, but the Buccaneers will prevail in the end.
Dallas Cowboys +7.5