TD Garden, Boston | Sunday, April 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EST
Odds: BOS -13.5 | Total: 206
Team Dynamics & Playoff Context
The Boston Celtics (61-21, 2nd in the East) come in as the reigning champions, riding high after a strong regular season and finishing with a five-game winning streak. Their offensive style is all about top-notch three-point shooting, with an impressive 45.8% of their points coming from long range, and they boast a solid lineup with seven players scoring in double figures.
The Orlando Magic (41-41, 7th in the East) made their way into the playoffs by focusing on defense, giving up the least points per game at 105.5 and landing in the top 10 for defensive efficiency. However, their offense, which ranks 27th with an offensive rating of 108.9, will have a tough time against Boston’s strong scoring ability.
Key Players to Watch
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: The All-NBA forward put up impressive numbers this season, averaging 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game, along with a true shooting percentage of 58.8%. In his only regular-season game against Orlando, he scored 30 points.
Jaylen Brown: Boston’s second-leading scorer, averaging 23.1 points per game, contributes strong perimeter defense and delivers key shots in critical moments.
Derrick White & Jrue Holiday: The backcourt pair averages over 25 points per game and showcases top-notch perimeter defense, which is essential when facing Orlando’s guards.
Kristaps Porziņģis: The stretch-five’s ability to pull defenders away from the paint with a 38.5% three-point shooting percentage creates mismatches for Boston’s offense.
Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero: The All-Star forward scored an average of 25.9 points per game after the All-Star break, featuring eight games with over 25 points in his last 10 games on the road.
Franz Wagner: Orlando’s versatile player (24.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) needs to take advantage of Boston’s occasional defensive breakdowns during fast breaks.
Wendell Carter Jr.: His 7.2 rebounds per game and ability to defend the paint will face a challenge from Porziņģis and Boston’s pick-and-roll strategies.
Jalen Suggs: The defensive specialist, averaging 1.6 steals per game, is responsible for keeping Boston’s backcourt in check.
Tactical Breakdown
Boston’s Edge
Three-Point Barrage: The Celtics take over 40 three-point shots each game, taking advantage of Orlando’s weak three-point defense, which ranks 21st and allows 36.5% shooting.
Defensive Versatility: Boston’s reliance on a switch-heavy strategy disrupts pick-and-roll plays, pushing Orlando to rely more on isolation tactics.
Experience: Tatum, Brown, and Holiday have played over 50 playoff games as a trio, whereas Orlando’s team doesn’t have much playoff experience.
Orlando’s Path to an Upset
Pace Control: The Magic have the slowest tempo in the NBA, which helps to reduce Boston’s chances for fast breaks.
Paint Dominance: Orlando needs to aggressively drive to the basket, especially since Banchero averages 12.2 free throw attempts per game, to counter Boston’s heavy reliance on three-pointers.
Defensive Physicality: The Magic’s best rim defenders, Carter Jr. and Jonathan Isaac, need to put a stop to Boston’s drives.
Sports Betting Ace’s Final Score Prediction: Boston Celtics 112 – Orlando Magic 98
Why Boston Covers: The Celtics’ strong offensive lineup and the boost from playing at home put too much pressure on Orlando’s struggling scoring abilities. Tatum scoring over 24.5 points (-115) seems like a sure bet, especially considering his playoff experience and the holes in Orlando’s defense.
Under Alert: Even though the total is at 206, Boston’s strong defense (ranked 2nd in points per game allowed) and Orlando’s slower tempo suggest that this game will likely be lower-scoring compared to their regular-season encounters.
X-Factor
Boston’s Bench: Payton Pritchard, who has been averaging 13.1 points per game over the last 10 outings, along with Sam Hauser, who hits 42% of his three-pointers, need to keep Orlando’s defense on its toes to help secure their leads.
If Boston can maintain their three-point shooting at over 38%, they might wrap up this series with a 4-1 victory. While Orlando’s defense does a good job of keeping games competitive, their struggles on offense make a significant upset seem improbable.
The Celtics’ championship experience and strong offense overwhelm Orlando’s tough but young team. Look for Boston to secure a win by double digits in Game 1.