Since Super Bowl lines opened, the Los Angeles Rams have been favored against the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams opened as 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals, but the line has now moved to 4 at every major sportsbook. On Thursday morning, several books moved from 4.5 to 4 as more money continues to be bet on the Bengals to win. BetMGM moved the line to 4 on Thursday and it remained there though Saturday morning. It has been fluctuating between 4 and 4.5 on Sunday, something to monitor when placing last-minute bets. It’s unusual to see a large line movement during Super Bowl week due to the liquidity in the market.
There’s no real recent history to look at between these teams as they haven’t met since a 24-10 Rams home win in 2019, a game neither Stafford or Burrow played in. Early Sports Interaction bettors are skewed toward the Bengals in this one at about a 58 per cent rate. The Over/Under is almost split down the middle, with the Over attracting 53 per cent of the action.
Despite what the NFL will tell you, L.A. obviously has an advantage in this game and for our purposes we’re looking at it as their home game. The Rams actually have a slightly better record outside of SoFi Stadium this year. They’re 7-3 in Los Angeles compared to 8-2 on the road. L.A. is an even 5-5 against the spread at home and on the road. They’ve also covered in five of their last seven games against the Bengals. The total went Under in six of 10 games at SoFi Stadium for the Rams this year.
The Cinderella Bengals come into this game with a 7-3 record outside of Cincinnati this year. They’ve covered in eight of 10 total road games and they’re 7-0 ATS over their last seven games. The total has gone Under in four of the Bengals’ last five games overall. It’s also worth noting that each of the last five games between these teams has gone Under the total.
Betting trends
- Cincinnati are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games.
- The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati’s last five games.
- Cincinnati are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games.
- The total has gone under in five of Cincinnati’s last five games against the Rams.
- The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati’s last five games when playing at home against the Rams.
- Cincinnati are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games this season.
- Cincinnati are 2-11-1 straight up in their last 14 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- Cincinnati are 0-5 straight up in their last five games against an opponent in the NFC West.
- Cincinnati are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games played on a Sunday.
- The Rams are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games.
- The Rams are 8-1 straight up in their last nine games.
- The Rams are 4-1 straight up in their last five games this season.
- The Rams are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against an opponent in the AFC.
- The Rams are 5-12 straight up in their last 17 games against an opponent in the AFC North.
Matthew Stafford Has Made The Rams A Legitimate Contender
With Jared Goff under center, it often felt like the Rams were a Super Bowl contender in spite of their quarterback rather than because of him. Goff’s infamously poor performance in Super Bowl 53 was followed by a pair of bad seasons in 2019 and 2020 that put the wheels in motion for Los Angeles to make a trade for Matthew Stafford. It’s hard to imagine a Goff-led Rams team overcoming a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit against the San Francisco 49ers like Stafford did in the NFC championship game.
Stafford finished that game going 31-for-45 for 337 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He has recorded two touchdown passes in each of his three playoff games this season and has completed 72 percent of his passes for 905 yards this postseason. Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. combined for 20 catches and 255 receiving yards in the win over the Niners.
Los Angeles has a great shot to win as a Rams vs Bengals prediction on Super Bowl Sunday, but covering the spread will require a break from the team’s recent trend toward closely contested games. The Rams are 2-3 ATS over their recent 4-1 SU run with four of the five games over that stretch being decided by three points or less.
Cincinnati Has Thrived As An Underdog
Joe Burrow deserves all of the love he is getting from fans and the media during Cincinnati’s 3-0 SU and ATS postseason run. The second-year quarterback is already an outstanding team leader and has consistently gotten the job done this postseason with some clutch late-game drives.
But while it has been Burrow dominating the headlines, Cincinnati’s defense also deserves a ton of credit for the team’s back-to-back upsets of the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs.
Prediction: LA Rams -3.5